Experts Predict Above Average Activity for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Between 13 to 19 named storms with winds 39 mph or higher are expected from June 1 to November 30.

Published: May 27, 2025Author: Robin Hattersley

Chart NOAA

The National Hurricane Center has issued its official 2025 outlook, projecting an active Atlantic hurricane season with conditions ripe for more storms than average. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is expected to deliver a higher-than-usual number of storms, fueled by a mix of climatic factors that are aligning for increased hurricane activity.

According to NOAA’s forecast, there is a 60% chance that the 2025 season will be above normal, a 30% chance it will be near normal, and just a 10% chance it will be below normal. The agency is calling for:

13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher)

6 to 10 hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher)

3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher)

NOAA states it has 70% confidence in these predictions.

Key Drivers of Increased Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Several atmospheric and oceanic factors are increasing the odds for a busy Atlantic hurricane season:

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ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The Pacific is expected to stay neutral, with neither El Niño nor La Niña dominating. El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity, while neutral or La Niña years often see above-average hurricane development.

Warmer Ocean Temperatures: The Atlantic Basin continues to warm, providing more energy for storm formation and rapid intensification.

Weakened Wind Shear: Forecasts call for weak wind shear in the Atlantic. With less disruption in the upper atmosphere, storms can grow stronger and more organized.

Active West African Monsoon: The monsoon may shift northward, delivering robust tropical waves that serve as the seeds for many of the Atlantic’s strongest and longest-lasting storms.

High-Heat Content Era: The Atlantic Basin is currently in a phase of high-heat content and lighter trade winds, both of which encourage tropical cyclone development and sustainability.